November 3, 2004

Election Forecasting

Posted by ryan at 12:17 AM in politics . | 20 Comments

By the time many of you read this we (hopefully) will have a decision in this election. As of a bit past midnight, I'd like to share some numbers across the various networks. I'm amazed at the difference between some of the networks' counts. What do you think makes for better ratings: First to call a state? Keeping the numbers close? ...

As of 12:05am:



NetworkBushKerry
ABC237188
NBC207199
CBS247200
CNN197188
FOX News210144
New York Times173134
Washington Post237188


 

Comments

Fox showed Kerry with the least electoral votes? Shocking! ;)

There was a lot about the way the returns were announced that pissed me off. Like calling states with 1% of polls reporting. But I have to say I was pretty pleased that CBS said they wouldn't call Ohio until the votes were counted, which they haven't been. I've heard estimates from 100,000 to 300,000 provisional ballots. Usually about 90% of provisional ballots are legitimate, so that's a lot of votes left to be counted.

Also, did you hear Bush is planning to announce his victory this afternoon? Doesn't he have to wait until the votes are actually counted. Oh wait, I forgot, the rules don't apply to the Bush administration.

Posted by: Emily at November 3, 2004 10:01 AM

Well.. Bush has a 130,000 vote lead in Ohio, with about 250,000 votes yet to be counted (provisional and otherwise). Kerry would have to get more than 180,000 of those 250,000 votes (78%) to pull Ohio off.. so it is pretty much a dead lock that Bush won.

That being said, I don't understand why the news is making a big deal about whether Bush will come out and start talking about victory, or whether Kerry will concede.. The candidates don't decide who won, the votes do.

Posted by: ryan at November 3, 2004 10:18 AM

That's what I'm saying! It's like Bush is all "Well, I think I won. I think I'll declare my own victory!" I think my head is going to explode.

Also, disregard my previous comment on Fox. I'm sick, that's my excuse.

Posted by: Emily at November 3, 2004 10:20 AM

Hmm.. seems the provisional ballot count is much lower than what the democrats were estimating. The AP says 140,000, Blackwell says it is possible the number could be as high as 180,000.

At 180k, Kerry would need more than 86% of the remaining ballots to 1) be valid and 2) be cast for him.

Hillary 08!!!

Posted by: ryan at November 3, 2004 10:31 AM

I can't believe you are actually criticizing Bush, when he would have had every right to declare victory last night! He waited a whole half day as a courtesy...amazing.

Look, in all honesty I am sorry your sick.

***Begin music***

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHhahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAhahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAhahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha......he......ho...ha....he.....HOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!! HA!!!!!!!

Posted by: Dude at November 3, 2004 12:41 PM

BTW....GOP Senate and House majorities expanded.

***Bass vamp build to rock/sports celebration song***

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH...HE......HOLY HO HO HO HO HEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Posted by: Dude at November 3, 2004 12:43 PM

There was no doubt in my mind that by about midnight last night that Bush was a lock.

My point is, the votes declare the victory, not the candidates running.

Posted by: ryan at November 3, 2004 12:47 PM

Of course, Ryan.

But public perception is also important to legitimacy. That's why Bush waited to get a concession from Kerry before giving a victory speech.

Sorry about the laughing...I think I am taking my frustration on all liberals in the world on your guys. That's probably not very fair...

Ha...he...uhem...hiccup...ha...

Posted by: Dude at November 3, 2004 12:49 PM

So now that the reps control everything even more than before perhaps I should pre-emptively look for work in Canada before abortion and women working become illegal in this country. ;)

Seriously though, I think the most disturbing thing that happened in this election was a lot of states voting to ban same sex marriage. I thought this was supposed to be the land of the free... Guess you are free only if you ascribe to certain religious and moral beliefs.

Maybe I should have started a new thread.

meh :)

Posted by: gizmo at November 3, 2004 1:00 PM

Well, since the gloves are kind of off, I hope Bush supporters enjoy the ruinous disaster this country will be after 4 more years of Bush. What is he going to do without another campaign to scare him into even a hint of moderation? I am honestly scared for the future of this country and anyone who isn't a rich white straight man. Yeah, I believe that gays, woman, poor people and minorities have rights. Ow, my bleeding heart!

I'm also disgusted that Americans are willing to vote their fear and prejudices instead of...well, anything else.

It's HILARIOUS to see the hopes of half the country tampled by some rich crazy Christian white guys. Way to be a gracious winner.

Posted by: Emily at November 3, 2004 2:09 PM

Also, Bush wanting to declare himself the winner before the votes are counted is revolting. It's arrogant, it's imperial, it's undemocratic. What a great 4 years it will be!

Obama 08.

Posted by: Emily at November 3, 2004 2:10 PM


"Also, Bush wanting to declare himself the winner before the votes are counted is revolting. It's arrogant, it's imperial, it's undemocratic."

um...so like Clinton in 92 and 96...Carter, Reagan, Bush 41 and every other President in the modern era must be all these things cause all the votes are NEVER counted before there is an obvious result. Bush graciously waited giving the Kerry team time to look at the numbers and decide on their own to concede.

It wouldn't matter what Bush did, you would find a way to criticize him, and that's what makes nearly everything you post not credible.

Posted by: Dude at November 3, 2004 4:54 PM

Also...did you know that Fox waited almost an hour after every other network to call Florida last night? Can't win...

Posted by: Dude at November 3, 2004 4:55 PM

Bush allowed Kerry the time to concede, which is respectable.

Dude, I understand that nearly all elections are "called" before all the votes are counted. The difference is in the mathematical possibility of this election compared to most elections. The outstanding votes to be counted outnumbered the margin of difference between the two candidates. In other words, it was mathematically possible for Kerry to win after all the Ohio votes were counted, however statistically unprobable.

Posted by: ryan at November 3, 2004 5:07 PM

...which is why Bush waited.

I think we are in agreement here.

Posted by: Dude at November 3, 2004 5:12 PM

Yes. But I don't enjoy it. I feel dirty when I agree with you. ; )

Posted by: ryan at November 3, 2004 5:14 PM

...which is why Bush waited.

I think we are in agreement here.

I'm gonna go away for a day or two...Emily's right, I'm not a gracious winner. Right now Sean Hannity is talking about how hard it is going to be to move on after all of the hatred and vitriol thrown at the President and his supporters... the hateful exaggerations, rhetoric and even outright lies. But he's saying how despite that, we should probably follow the President's lead and try to reach out and heal. So, in light of that...I suck. In fact, I'm just a crazy, Christian white man...lol.

Sing to tune of "who let the dogs out":

Who's in the White House?? Bush...Bush, Bush, Bush
Who's in the White House?? Bush...Bush, Bush, Bush

Posted by: Dude at November 3, 2004 5:17 PM

Sorry about that repetition up there...

Posted by: Dude at November 3, 2004 5:18 PM

Holy shit, stop the presses! I'm right about something!

Posted by: Emily at November 4, 2004 4:50 PM

I have to give you credit sometimes.. :o)

Why do I get the feeling that you and I could perfectly play the lead rolls in the stage version of "As Good as it Gets"??

Grrrr....

Posted by: Dude at November 5, 2004 1:20 PM